On the value of expert knowledge in estimation and forecasting of solar photovoltaic power generation

Abstract

Reliable estimates and forecasts of Photovoltaic (PV) power output form a fundamental basis to support its large-scale integration. This is recognized in literature, where a growing amount of studies deal with the development of PV power estimation and forecasting models. In particular, machine learning techniques received significant attention in the past decade. Yet, the importance of predictor variables are consistently ignored in such developments and as a result those models fail to acknowledge the value of including physics-based models. In this study we quantify the value of predictor variables for PV power estimation and forecasting, assess deficiencies in estimation and forecasting models, and introduce a number of pre-processing steps to improve the overall estimation or forecasting performance. To this end, we use common physical models to create so-called expert variables and test their impact on the performance of single-point and probabilistic models. In addition, we investigate the optimal selection of predictor variables for PV power estimation and forecasting. By means of a sensitivity analysis, the paper shows how the value of expert variables is affected by the tilt angle of the PV system. To allow for a deeper insight into the importance of predictor variables, two case studies in different climate regions are considered in the numerical evaluation.