Spatiotemporal cost-supply curves for bioenergy production in Mozambique

Abstract

Abstract: The objective of this study is to assess how bioenergy costs and supply potential in Mozambique develop over time in a spatially explicit way. The land availability for energy crops was explored making use of a businessas- usual and progressive scenario on the development of other land-use functions. The assessment of the costs and supply potential is based on developments in land availability, the suitability of the land that is and becomes available, the disaggregated cost breakdown of energy crop production, the transportation distance of feedstock to conversion plant, the cost of conversion, the transportation distance from plant to harbor, and the cost of international shipping. The supply chains of eucalyptus (torrefi ed) pellets and sugarcane ethanol are used as a case study. The results show a large spatial variation in supply chain costs, which is the result of spatial variation in feedstock production costs, primary transport costs, and secondary transport costs. Most promising areas for eucalyptus and sugarcane production are scattered in the central south, the central, and the north-eastern part of Mozambique where agro-ecological conditions are relatively favorable, where suffi cient feedstock can grow to meet plant input requirements, and where infrastructure is available. In 2030, in the progressive scenario, the total potential for eucalyptus pellet production amounts 3200 PJ of which 2500 PJ could be exported to Europe below a market price level of 8 €/GJ; for sugarcane ethanol, the total potential amount is 850 PJ of which 500 PJ could be exported below a price level of 30 €/GJ. The location of production is the key factor for cost-effective production. This study demonstrates an approach which enables the assessment of the development of bioenergy potential and costs over time in a spatially explicit way. As environmental and socio-economic impacts of bioenergy supply chains are highly related to the biophysical and socio-economic context of the production location, a spatially explicit assessment of bioenergy production potential is a suitable approach for the assessment of the sustainability of bioenergy chains.