Limits to management adaptation for the Indus’ irrigated agriculture

Abstract

Future irrigated agriculture will be strongly affected by climate change and agricultural management. However, the extent that agricultural management adaptation can counterbalance negative climate-change impacts and achieve sustainable agricultural production remains poorly quantified. Such quantification is especially important for the Indus basin, as irrigated agriculture is essential for its food security and will be highly affected by increasing temperatures and changing water availability. Our study quantified these effects for several climate-change mitigation scenarios and agricultural management-adaptation strategies using the state-of-the-art VIC-WOFOST hydrology–crop model. Our results show that by the 2030s, management adaptation through improved nutrient availability and constrained irrigation will be sufficient to achieve sustainable and increased agricultural production. However, by the 2080s agricultural productivity will strongly depend on worldwide climate-change mitigation efforts. Especially under limited climate-change mitigation, management adaptation will be insufficient to compensate the severe production losses due to heat stress. Our study clearly indicates the limits to management adaptation in the Indus basin, and only further adaptation or strong worldwide climate-change mitigation will secure the Indus’ food productivity.