The Climatological Renewable Energy Deviation Index

Abstract

Here we propose an index to quantify and analyse the impact of climatological variability on the energy system at different timescales. We define the Climatological Renewable Energy Deviation Index (CREDI) as the cumulative anomaly of a renewable resource with respect to its climate over a specific time period of interest. We analyse the index at decadal, annual and (sub-)seasonal timescales using the forthcoming Pan-European Climate Database and consider the starting point and window of analysis for its use at those timescales. The CREDI is meant as an analytical tool for researchers and stakeholders to help them quantify, understand, and explain, the impact of the variability of weather on the energy system across timescales. Improved understanding translates to better assessments of how renewable resources, and the associated risks for energy security, may fare in current and future climatological settings. The practical use of the index is in resource planning. For example transmission system operators may be able to adjust short-term planning to reduce adequacy issues before they occur or combine the index with storyline event selection for improved assessments of climate change related risks.