PARAMETRA: A transmission modelling database for livestock diseases

Abstract

Dynamic modelling of infectious diseases of importance to livestock production is a valuable tool for policy and decision makers. Mathematical and simulation models play an essential role in understanding complex systems, but parameterising these models can be challenging, especially in data-sparse environments. When parameters are unable to be estimated from epidemiological or experimental data, a time-consuming and labour-intensive literature review—to identify suitable literature-informed values—is often necessary. In service of this, here we present PARAMETRA, a parameter database for 20 pathogens of livestock, envisaged as an open-source collaborative tool for the research community to aid in the development of future transmission models of livestock pathogens. Pathogens included in the database so far were selected using a disease prioritisation exercise. Parameters of interest were selected by experts with a strong background in epidemiology and mathematical modelling. We populated the database with over 2000 individual values, covering a wide range of different parameters including transmission rates, diagnostic test efficacies, pathogen survival on surfaces, and the farm and regional level prevalences of selected diseases. Finally, we present an initial illustrative analysis of the database contents and the associated metadata of studies included. One of the principal conclusions we can draw from the data available is that in many cases research is reactive, rather than proactive, with research only tending to focus on specific diseases after outbreaks have already occurred, as is the case for African swine fever for example. This has important implications for future research moving to a more proactive approach for experimental and epidemiological studies based on observations of gaps in the data, and high-risk diseases. This publication represents the first step in development for the PARAMETRA database, which will be updated and expanded in the coming years.