Predicting the tumor response to chemoradiotherapy for rectal cancer: Model development and external validation using MRI radiomics

Abstract

Background: In well-responding patients to chemoradiotherapy for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC), a watch-and-wait strategy can be considered. To implement organ-sparing strategies, accurate patient selection is needed. We investigate the use of MRI-based radiomics models to predict tumor response to improve patient selection. Materials and methods: Models were developed in a cohort of 70 patients and validated in an external cohort of 55 patients. Patients received chemoradiation followed by surgery and underwent T2-weighted and diffusion-weighted MRI (DW-MRI) before and after chemoradiation. The outcome measure was (near-)complete pathological tumor response (ypT0-1N0). Tumor segmentation was done on T2-images and transferred to b800-images and ADC maps, after which quantitative and four semantic features were extracted. We combined features using principal component analysis and built models using LASSO regression analysis. The best models based on precision and performance were selected for validation. Results: 21/70 patients (30%) achieved ypT0-1N0 in the development cohort versus 13/55 patients (24%) in the validation cohort. Three models (t2_dwi_pre_post, semantic_dwi_adc_pre, semantic_dwi_post) were identified with an area-under-the-curve (AUC) of 0.83 (95% CI 0.70–0.95), 0.86 (95% CI 0.75–0.98) and 0.84 (95% CI 0.75–0.94) respectively. Two models (t2_dwi_pre_post, semantic_dwi_post) validated well in the external cohort with AUCs of 0.83 (95% CI 0.70–0.95) and 0.86 (95% CI 0.76–0.97). These models however did not outperform a previously established four-feature semantic model. Conclusion: Prediction models based on MRI radiomics non-invasively predict tumor response after chemoradiation for rectal cancer and can be used as an additional tool to identify patients eligible for an organ-preserving treatment.