Harnessing social tipping dynamics: A systems approach for accelerating decarbonization

Abstract

Social tipping points are promising levers for accelerating decarbonization progress. They describe how social, political, economic, or technological systems can move rapidly into a new state if positive feedback mechanisms are triggered. Analyzing the potential for social tipping requires the inherent complexity of social systems to be considered. Yet the growing social tipping literature is missing a practical framework that embeds conceptual and empirical aspects of complex feedback processes. In this perspective, we propose a dynamic systems approach that can contextualize conceptual social tipping mechanisms into practical interventions, and map the key feedback mechanisms underlying tipping dynamics across systems and scales. Our approach has three main components: a systems outlook involving interconnected feedback mechanisms; directed data collection for empirical evidence and monitoring tipping dynamics ; and global, integrated, descriptive modeling to project future dynamics and provide ex ante evidence for tipping interventions. We demonstrate how and why this approach should shape a broad agenda to strengthen the viability and effectiveness of social tipping research.