Prospecting urban mines of fossil fuel-based energy systems in the energy transition

Abstract

The ongoing energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables is increasing the demand for materials, particularly metals. As fossil fuel infrastructure, such as refineries, tankers, pipelines, and ships, is phased out, this obsolete infrastructure could serve as an urban mine, supplying secondary materials like steel, aluminium, and copper. However, the extent to which these materials can meet future needs remains unclear and is often overlooked. Here we develop the global dynamic fossil fuel material model to quantify material stocks embedded in fossil fuel infrastructure and project secondary material availability through 2050 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 (SSP2) baseline and 2-degree Celsius (2D) scenarios. Our findings indicate that material demand for new infrastructure continues to grow under the baseline scenario and exceeds recoverable volumes. Even under the 2D scenario, the surplus of recovered metals remains insufficient to meet the growing material requirements of renewable energy technologies. (Figure presented.)