Climate change impacts on mode choices and travelled distances: a comparison of present with 2050 weather conditions for the Randstad Holland

Abstract

In the light of climate change, scholars from various disciplines recently addressed the role of weather conditions for travel behaviour. However, existing studies lack assessments of combinations of weather parameters and direct links to projected climate change. With this paper, we investigate potential effects of climate change on mode choice and distances travelled in the Randstad Holland. Based on approximate combinations of weather conditions projected for 2050, we select seasons from the last decade, to represent current and future climate conditions. By using data from the Dutch National Travel survey for the selected seasons, we analyse travel behaviour under 2050-climate conditions compared to travel behaviour under present climate conditions. Results show increasing usage and travelled distances for open-air transport modes in milder and wetter 2050-winters, mainly at the expense of the car, whereas in hotter summers with more extreme precipitation patterns reversed effects are observed. Year-round analyses of effects from 2050-climate conditions show a ‘‘flattening out’’ of seasonal differences in modal split, while for cycling mode shares and distances travelled significantly increase.