Water and development in the Asian tropics, 1900–1939

Abstract

Environmental conditions significantly affected development in the Asian tropics. This paper investigates the relationship between weather risk and agriculture in four regions with distinct climatological features. Using new data, we estimate the scale of crop output sensitivity to rainfall shocks across ecological zones. Output was sensitive to shocks in regions with low levels, concentrated spells and high volatility of rainfall. Canal irrigation protected some districts while unirrigated regions remained vulnerable. Regions with high rainfall levels and long seasons remained protected. Regions with large interruptions deterred investment and were underdeveloped while regions with small interruptions invited investment-led growth.