High-resolution global pathways to achieve 100% electricity access in 2030

Abstract

Achieving universal access to a sufficient electricity supply is a crucial component of the Sustainable Development Goals. However, model projections suggest that under current policies, this goal will not be reached by 2030. There is still little understanding of the possible electrification strategies and associated costs across global regions. To address this gap, we explore scenarios for achieving universal electricity access globally in 2030 based on high-resolution data and energy projections from the integrated assessment model IMAGE. The scenarios consider baseline development, implementation of electricity supply per household consistent with decent living standards and synergies with climate change mitigation. The results indicate that off-grid systems, i.e. mini-grids and solar home systems, are the least-cost solution for most people gaining access after 2023 (base year). Furthermore, targeting universal access leads to at least 70GW of off-grid additional capacity needed, most of which is required for Sub-Saharan Africa. If combined with climate goals, the optimal strategy increases renewables, reducing CO2 emissions by around 30%, while system cost remains similar to the scenarios without climate policies.