The Emissions Gap Report 2012

Abstract

One of the fundamental questions in the global climate negotiations is: what level of “ambition”, in terms of collective emission reductions, is needed to protect global climate? To help answer this question UNEP and the scientific community have published a series of reports on the “emissions gap1” since 2010. Of particular interest to the ambition question is the gap in 2020 between emission levels consistent with the 2oC climate target and emissions levels projected if country reduction pledges are fulfilled. If there is a gap, then there is doubt that the ambition of countries is great enough to meet the agreed-upon 2oC climate target In the 2010 Emissions Gap Report, scientists indicated that there would likely be a substantial emissions gap in 2020, although estimates of this gap ranged widely, depending on assumptions about how country pledges would be complied with. In the 2011 Bridging the Emissions Gap Report, scientists noted that enough technical potential existed to close the gap in 2020, but fast action by countries was needed. UNEP has now convened a group of 55 scientists and experts from 43 scientific groups across 22 countries to produce this third emissions gap report which covers the following: • An update of global greenhouse gas emission estimates, based on a number of different authoritative scientific sources; • An overview of national emission levels, both current (2010) and projected (2020) consistent with current pledges and other commitments; • An estimate of the level of global emissions consistent with the two degree target in 2020, 2030 and 2050; • An update of the assessment of the emissions gap for 2020; • A review of selected examples of the rapid progress being made in different parts of the world to implement policies already leading to substantial emission reductions. These policies could contribute significantly to narrowing the gap if they are scaled up and replicated in other countries.