Exploring the Impact of Routine Activity and Financial Strain on Fraud Victimization During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Hong Kong

Abstract

This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on fraud victimization in Hong Kong, providing valuable insights beyond the Western context. Drawing on general strain theory and routine activity theory, this research explores the influence of economic recession at the local and adjacent societal levels, as well as residential duration (refers to relative time spent at residences), on fraud victimization in Hong Kong. Utilizing 10 years (120 months) of monthly police-recorded victimization data, this study employs various methodologies, including ARIMA forecasting, single-group interrupted time series analysis (ITSA), and Poisson regression, to explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on fraud victimization in Hong Kong. The ARIMA framework reveals an unexpected and significant increase in fraud victimization during the COVID-19 period, surpassing the predicted levels. The ITSA results demonstrate that the pandemic had a short-term and long-term effect on fraud victimization in Hong Kong. To further understand the factors contributing to this change, a Poisson regression analysis is conducted. The findings highlight the positive and significant impact of residential duration and the unemployment rate in mainland China on fraud victimization, aligning with the propositions of routine activity theory and general strain theory. Limitations and policy implications at both the local and international levels are discussed.