Investigating the Hydrogen Demand Curve in Road Transport

Abstract

Applying hydrogen can potentially decarbonize road transport. This paper introduces a novel approach for deriving hydrogen demand curves in road transport. By analyzing acceptable prices for new vehicle buyers opting for hydrogen and the possible hydrogen demand from these new vehicles, our model provides insights into potential market dynamics. The model is applied to Germany and simulates the total hydrogen demand across 15 price scenarios. The results reveal that hydrogen demand can be expected from passenger transport in 2030 but not in 2045, attributed to the economic viability and increasing availability of electric alternatives. Within freight transport, heavy-duty freight emerges as a key segment with significant potential demand at relatively high acceptable prices. Comparison with a prior study underscores the model's contribution, offering insights into the upper bounds of acceptable hydrogen price.