Increased policy ambition is needed to avoid the effects of climate change and reach carbon removal targets in Portugal

Abstract

The Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming hinges on forest carbon sequestration as a key in several national strategies. However, Portugal’s rising forest fire occurrences threaten its ability to meet ambitious 2030 and 2050 carbon sequestration targets. Considering fire and forest trends, this study aims to quantify whether Portugal can reach its carbon sequestration ambitions as stated in its 2030 and 2050 targets. We tested three national forest scenario extensions of the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Shared Policy Assumptions (SPAs) based on a dynamic model, simulating forest area and carbon sequestration related to future fire risk and policies of fire management, forest management, restoration of burnt areas, and climate change adaptation. The model projects a rapidly decreasing forest area under existing Portuguese policies (PT-SSP3), a slow decline under moderate policy improvements (PT-SSP2), and an almost stable forest area under long-term sustainable policy developments (PT-SSP1). In PT-SSP3, carbon sequestration will be reduced to 60% by 2050 compared to 2015, while it declines to about 85% and 90% under PT-SSP2 and PT-SSP1, respectively. It is still plausible to reach Portugal’s 2030 sequestration obligations under the EU’s Paris Agreement target under all three scenarios, while the Portuguese GHG neutrality target is not reached in the presented scenarios. Our four introduced policy areas (increasing focus on fire and forest management, forest restoration, and climate change adaptation of forest stands) must be supplemented by other policy strategies, such as reforestation.