Understanding mesopredator responses to changes in apex predator populations in Europe: implications for the mesopredator release hypothesis

Abstract

Conservation successes in Europe have sparked the recovery of apex predators, which may affect the populations of mesopredators. The mesopredator release hypothesis (MRH) predicts that a decline in apex predators triggers a ‘release’ of mesopredators from suppression. We expanded the MRH to include predictions of inverse responses following increases in apex predator abundance or distribution. We examined European mesopredator responses to changes in apex predator populations and evaluated the extended MRH's explanatory power. We examined the results of 47 studies on European predators for supporting evidence, mixed evidence, no evidence, or contrasting evidence for the extended MRH. Out of 38 apex predator – mesopredator pairings, 10 predominantly supported the extended MRH, while others provided limited or no support. In 23 instances across 17 pairings, mesopredator responses contradicted predictions. Initial findings suggest the extended MRH better predicts mesopredator responses in pairings with intermediate to large body size differences and in pairings where mesopredators primarily hunt. Our results reveal non-uniform mesopredator responses to changing apex predator populations. This emphasises the complexity of predator interactions, which extends beyond suppression. We suggest the MRH's scope is more restricted than previously thought, cautioning against overreliance on the MRH as a default expectation for European mesopredator responses to apex predator population changes.