A policy simulation based on multicriteria decision analysis

Abstract

Most scenarios for future energy policy are based on one or two predominant policy objectives. In this paper, policy objectives from several existing energy scenarios for The Netherlands are combined, The attainment of ‘ideal values’ of policy criteria (i.e., the ‘ideal point’ multicriteria decision method) is taken as the most likely mechanism for decision making on energy policy. The required criterion weights for this method are based on varying forecasts and ideals in three periods from 1980 till 2010. The variation of criterion weights results in feedbacks of the policy results in previous periods to the desired policy in the next period