Global Gridded Climate-Responsive Crop Selection: Sowing Dates and Crop Varieties in a Warming World

Abstract

Farmers face increasing challenges in maintaining stable crop production as climate change alters growing conditions through higher temperatures, variable rainfall, and extreme weather events. To adapt, farmers often select new crop varieties and adjust planting dates before changing crops, as these strategies involve lower costs and risks. To support assessments of future crop production under climate change, we developed a global gridded dataset that provides simulated yields and consumptive water use for multiple crop varieties and sowing dates for maize, soybean, winter wheat, spring wheat, and rice. The dataset is based on simulations with the WOrld FOod STudies crop growth model under five global climate models and three greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, at a spatial resolution of 0.5 by 0.5 degrees (~55 km at the equator), covering the years 1961 to 2100. It can help identify suitable crop varieties and planting dates that sustain yields and optimize water use. This dataset is intended for use in crop modelling, climate impact assessments, and agricultural adaptation planning.