Are Dark Number Estimates of Crime Feasible and Useful?

Abstract

Criminals want to minimize crime detection. This makes crime hard to study, especially when attempting an overview, such as estimating the volume. While policymakers seek dark number estimates of the total volume, there is skepticism among academics about whether they are valid, reliable, feasible, or even useful. This chapter argues, specifically for money laundering, that whether to conduct dark number crime estimates should be determined by relevance. Such estimates can be relevant for policy priority setting, policy effectiveness testing, and scientific relevance. There are legitimate concerns about dark number estimates of crime. We might be unsure which data to use, uncertain about the right research method, and in doubt about the appropriate model, but these doubts and uncertainties should not terminate the search. Actually, doubt and uncertainty should be a driving force for research.