Can Bitcoin Investors Profit from Predictions by Crypto Experts?
Publication date
2022-05
Authors
Gerritsen, Dirk
Lugtigheid, Rick
Walther, Thomas
Editors
Advisors
Supervisors
Document Type
Article
Metadata
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cc_by
Abstract
Using a hand-collected dataset containing bullish, neutral, and bearish predictions for Bitcoin published by crypto experts, we show that neutral and bearish predictions are followed by negative abnormal returns whereas bullish predictions are not associated with nonzero abnormal returns. Based on all outstanding predictions, we compute prediction revisions relative to (i) the latest issued prediction and (ii) the outstanding consensus prediction. Downward revisions are followed by negative abnormal returns. We conclude that crypto experts are skilled information intermediaries on the Bitcoin market.
Keywords
Analysts, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, Experts, Forecasts, Market efficiency, Predictions, Finance, SCI and SSCI Journals
Citation
Gerritsen, D, Lugtigheid, R & Walther, T 2022, 'Can Bitcoin Investors Profit from Predictions by Crypto Experts?', Finance Research Letters, vol. 46, no. Part A, 102266, pp. 1-7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2021.102266