Beyond the twin transition: military drivers of critical minerals’ expansion

Abstract

An accelerating clean energy and digital “twin transition” is widely identified as the primary driver of rising critical minerals extraction. Policy institutions and academic analyses highlight a range of complex challenges for sustainable development that follow from this. Far less attention is paid to another core driver: accelerating military mobilisation and war-related technological change. This perspective paper shifts attention to the dynamics of military demand for minerals and critically examines the implications for sustainable development. We trace the long-standing role of military demand in shaping critical minerals extraction and the emergence of persistent sustainability challenges. We outline how military demand continues to shape critical minerals classifications, priorities, extraction volumes and policy approaches – an influence that has strengthened recently yet is rarely considered in prominent forecasts and concerns around demand and supply. We then consider military demand in the context of prominent social, economic and environmental sustainability concerns in extractive industries today. While increased military influence may spur some innovation, it is likely to exacerbate persistent developmental and environmental problems in mining, and potentially undermine current frameworks and initiatives for sustainable development.