Global pesticide use scenarios up to 2050 along the shared socio-economic pathways

Abstract

Pesticide use has significant advantages in modern agricultural production. However, it can negatively impact human health and ecosystems. Yet, no scenarios exist for possible future pesticide use. We fill this knowledge gap by developing global pesticide use scenarios following the storylines of four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for six crop types and two pesticides, glyphosate and chlorpyrifos. The global pesticide use scenarios are developed by combining map-based pesticide application rates from the PEST-CHEMGRIDS database with crop harvested area projections from the IMAGE 3.3 integrated assessment model. Crop-specific pesticide use maps identify China, South America, Africa, the USA, and South Asia as future hotspots of pesticide use. Pesticide use increases in SSP2 and SSP3, ranging from 5.2 to 6.5 million tonnes for vegetables and fruits in 2050. Glyphosate use shows an upsurge in SSP2 and SSP3 across global regions, while overall chlorpyrifos use decreases in SSP3, except in some regions. SSP1 shows a reduction in pesticide use by 2050 for certain crops, ranging from −40% for rice to −8% for vegetables and fruits, due to higher environmental regulation, awareness, and technology acceptance, thereby leading to lower pesticide application. Combining SSP1 with the implementation of the low-meat Eat-Lancet diet leads to a reduction in global pesticide use in feed crops such as maize (5.6%↘), wheat (18.9%↘), rice (52.6%↘), soybeans (23.5%↘), and other crops (17.8%↘). These results show that transitioning away from a meat-intensive diet and reducing food waste can reduce pesticide use.