The effect of electric vehicle use on trip frequency and vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) in the Netherlands

Abstract

The transition from conventional vehicles to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) is expected to significantly contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector. However, the effectiveness of this transition depends on how BEVs and PHEVs are used compared to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). This paper analyzes data from the 2018–2020 Dutch National Travel Surveys to assess travel behavior of single-car households across four vehicle types: ICEVs, HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs. Specifically, we focus on daily trip frequency and vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) for both commuting and non-commuting purposes, while examining how these vehicle usage patterns correlate with vehicle attributes, socioeconomic and demographic factors, and the built environment. Our descriptive analysis shows that BEV and PHEV users have significantly longer daily VKT for both commuting and non-commuting travel compared to ICEV and HEV users. The model results reveal that after controlling for various factors, BEVs are associated with shorter daily VKT for non-commuting travel compared to other powertrain types, while a pattern not observed for commuting travel. Notably, there is no evidence of a rebound effect linked to the use of BEV and PHEV powertrains. Additionally, leased or company vehicles, regardless of powertrain type, are associated with higher daily VKT and a higher probability of trip-making compared to privately owned vehicles. This higher daily VKT observed for BEV and PHEV users is largely due to the higher prevalence of their vehicles being leased or company cars, rather than the powertrain type itself.