Roadblocks to fuel-cell electric vehicle diffusion: Evidence from Germany, Japan and California

Abstract

Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) are diffusing slowly, well below historical expectations and government targets. To elucidate key factors that may explain this sluggish growth, we identify barriers in three influential markets: Germany, Japan and California. Combining data from 59 interviews and secondary documents, we examine each market from four dimensions: (i) vehicle production, (ii) supporting infrastructure, (iii) vehicle demand, and (iv) institutions. Findings reveal a web of systemic and self-reinforcing barriers hampering market formation in all four dimensions. We also find that stakeholders perceive FCEV market barriers in relation to competing technologies; namely battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Faster market growth and lower hurdles for BEVs are thereby raising the relative barriers for FCEVs, further hampering the latter's deployment potential. Findings thus reveal the importance of considering interactions between different technological systems when studying diffusion. They also provide valuable hints for industry and government to confront these systemic barriers.