Immigration and Radical Right Voting: The Interplay Between Salience and Attitudes

Abstract

Anti-immigrant attitudes are one of the most important explanations for radical right voting. However, these attitudes are remarkably stable and, therefore, not well-suited to fully explain fluctuations in radical right parties’ success. In this study, we tested whether perceiving immigration as an important problem is a condition under which anti-immigrant attitudes are translated into a radical right vote. The salience of immigration is more prone to fluctuations and may therefore contribute to our understanding of the dynamics of radical right voting. The Dutch Parliamentary Election Studies from 2002 to 2021 were employed to test our hypotheses. We found that the salience of immigration had an effect on radical right voting above and beyond anti-immigrant attitudes. Salience had a somewhat stronger effect among individuals with stronger anti-immigrant attitudes. We conclude that salience is not a necessary condition for individuals to translate their anti-immigrant attitudes into a radical right vote, but that salience does increase the probability of voting for the radical right, especially for those who already hold negative attitudes toward immigration. Future research should improve the measurement of what issues voters prioritize, and seek to understand which issues compel individuals to vote for the radical right.