CoPro: a data-driven modelling framework for conflict risk projections

Abstract

Climate change and environmental degradation are increasingly recognized as factors that can contribute to conflict risk under specific conditions. In light of predicted shifts in climate patterns and the potentially resulting battle for increasingly scarce resources, it is widely acknowledged that there is an actual risk of increased armed conflict. To efficiently plan and implement adaptation and mitigation measures, it is key to first obtain an understanding of conflict drivers and spatial conflict risk distribution. And second, conflict risk needs to be projected to a given point in the future to be able to prepare accordingly. With CoPro, building and running models investigating the interplay between conflict and climate is made easier. By means of a clear workflow, maps of conflict risk for today as well as the future can be produced. Despite the structured workflow, CoPro caters for a variety of settings and input data, thereby capturing the multitude of facets of the climate-environment-conflict nexus.