Microbial driver of 2006-2023 CH4 growth indicated by trends in atmospheric δD-CH4 and δ13C-CH4

Abstract

Methane (CH4) is the second most important greenhouse gas and has been rising following a brief period of stabilization from 1999 to 2006. Determining the cause of this rise is critical for reducing emissions and predicting future climate sensitivity. The carbon and hydrogen stable isotopic composition of atmospheric CH4 is controlled by variability in isotopically distinguishable emission categories and fractionating sink processes. While most studies using atmospheric δ13C-CH4 data suggest a dominantly microbial source for recent CH4 growth, this understanding is not uniform, and uncertainties remain [S. Schwietzke et al., Nature538, 88-91 (2016), S. Basu et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys.22, 15351-15377 (2022), J. Thanwerdas, M. Saunois, A. Berchet, I. Pison, P. Bousquet, Atmos. Chem. Phys.24, 2129-2167 (2024)]. Here, we present a harmonized global measurement record of atmospheric δD-CH4 and estimate emissions from 1999 to 2022 with global isotope mass balance calculations using both carbon and hydrogen isotopic ratios. We conduct thorough uncertainty analyses to separate absolute magnitude and emission trend uncertainties and find with high confidence that trends in δ13C-CH4 and δD-CH4 observations are both consistent with an entirely microbial emission driver of the post-2006 CH4 rise, while fossil fuel emissions have remained relatively stable.