Electrifying: What Factors Drive the Transition Toward Electric Vehicle Adoption in the Netherlands?

Abstract

This study examines car adoption in the context of household car fleet choices using data from the Dutch National Travel Survey (2018–2020) and nested logit regression models. We analyze the factors associated with the selection of different vehicle types, including internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs), across one- and two-car fleets. Descriptive analysis indicates that BEVs and PHEVs are more prevalent in two-car households than in one-car households, where they are less likely to be the sole vehicle. Additionally, these vehicles are predominantly leased or company cars rather than privately owned, regardless of household fleet size. Model findings reveal that higher income strongly correlates with BEV and PHEV adoption, particularly for PHEVs in one-car households. Education also plays a significant role: one-car households adopting BEVs or PHEVs typically have higher education levels, with this effect being most pronounced for BEVs. Geographically, BEV adoption in one-car households is largely an urban phenomenon. Over time, the profile of BEV and PHEV adopters in two-car households has shifted. Dependence on higher education and urban concentration has decreased, reflecting a broader adoption pattern. These findings underscore the need for policies that address disparities in the uptake of electric vehicles, especially among user groups that are slower to adopt new technologies.