Towards a more comprehensive scenario development process in MFA: A Systematic Review

Abstract

As modern society faces increasing pressures on raw material availability, sustainable resource management becomes crucial for minimizing environmental impact and ensuring socio-economic benefits. Material Flow Analysis (MFA) is a core tool in assessing material stocks and flows. Integrating future scenario analysis with MFA can aid decision-making processes by providing insight into possible future pathways. In this systematic review, the existing integration of both methodologies is reviewed, exploring the use of various future scenario types, such as predictive, explorative, and normative. We find that formal guidance and consensus on a rigorous approach for combining these methods is currently missing. In most articles, the scenarios are simply presented without any accompanying explanation of the processes or methods used to arrive at them. The research highlights gaps in the current scenario development approaches used in MFA, emphasizing the need for standardized and transparent methods. By improving the integration of these methodologies, the effectiveness of long-term strategic planning in resource management can be enhanced, contributing to more sustainable outcomes.