Predictive modeling of PV solar power plant efficiency considering weather conditions: A comparative analysis of artificial neural networks and multiple linear regression

Abstract

This study investigates the surface parameters and environmental factors affecting the energy production of a 500 kWp photovoltaic (PV) solar power plant in Igdir province. Using both the PV panel characteristics and the weather conditions specific to the power plant location, a total of 7 detailed features were included. The estimation of the power plant efficiency, a novel contribution not found in previous studies, is also a major focus. The performance evaluation of different models, including feed-forward neural networks and multiple linear regression, demonstrates the effectiveness of artificial neural networks in capturing the complex relationships between features and efficiency despite limited data availability. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to reduce feature dimensions, showing that even with a reduced feature set, accurate efficiency prediction is still achievable. Prediction using PCA is one of the novelties of the paper. The effects of solar irradiation, module power, and module temperature on power plant efficiency are revealed. The results provide valuable insights for optimizing energy investments in the Igdir region and highlight the potential of artificial neural networks in energy forecasting, demonstrating their suitability for capturing complex patterns in solar power plant efficiency.