Mind the Gap: Measuring Academic Underachievement Using Stochastic Frontier Analysis

Abstract

We propose using Stochastic Frontier Analysis to estimate pupils’ academic underachievement. We model underachievement as the gap between expected achievement and actual achievement, not due to a learning disability. Our data are a panel for 2,228 Belgian pupils observed over 6 years of primary education. We found that the average underachievement gap is 23.5%. That is, the average pupil does not exploit about one fourth of their potential. Gifted pupils appear to underachieve as much as non-gifted pupils. We also found that class size is a determinant of underachievement. The association between class size and underachievement is non-monotonic, with an underachievement minimum at a class size of about 20 pupils.