The Fading of the Mpox Outbreak Among Men Who Have Sex With Men: A Mathematical Modelling Study

Abstract

Background. In the Netherlands, the number of mpox cases started declining before mpox vaccination was initiated. Most cases were men who have sex with men (MSM). We investigated whether the decline in mpox could be attributed to infection-induced immunity or behavioral adaptations. Methods. We developed a transmission model and accounted for possible behavioral adaptations: fewer casual partners and shorter time until MSM with mpox refrain from sexual contacts. Results. Without behavioral adaptations, the peak in modelled cases matched observations, but the decline was less steep than observed. With behavioral adaptations in the model, we found a decline of 16%–18% in numbers of casual partners in June and 13%–22% in July 2022. Model results showed a halving of the time before refraining from sex. When mpox vaccination started, 57% of MSM with very high sexual activity in the model had been infected. Model scenarios revealed that the outbreak could have waned by November 2022 even without vaccination. Conclusions. The limited duration of the mpox outbreak in the Netherlands can be ascribed primarily to infection-induced immunity among MSM with high sexual activity levels. The decline was accelerated by behavioral adaptations. Immunity among those most sexually active is essential to impede mpox resurgence.