Adaptive and strategic capacity: navigating megaprojects through uncertainty and complexity

Abstract

In an effort to combat the complexity and uncertainty that comes with megainfrastructure development, planners often seek to simplify the process and scope of their projects, making plans that consist of rigid sequential steps. The question is how this approach influences planners’ responsiveness to uncertainty and complexity in megaproject decision making and planning. To answer this question I introduce two concepts: adaptive capacity and strategic capacity. I develop these concepts and apply them to three large infrastructure projects in the Netherlands in order to analyze the potential of these projects to deal with change and inertia. In this paper I first look at the concepts individually and then link them together. This shows that, to be successful, planning needs to navigate a project through uncertainty and complexity and that it is important that these concepts are taken into consideration.