Reviewing the availability of copper and nickel for future generations. The balance between production growth, sustainability and recycling rates

Abstract

Copper and nickel are important metals for our society. Developing countries depend on copper and nickel for the construction of their infrastructure. Copper and nickel are also key elements for the transition to a fossil free electric energy production, which might lead to increased demand for these metals. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether and at which conditions a sustainable production rate of copper and nickel can be combined with an increase of the service level of the two metals for the entire future world population to the same level as in developed countries in 2020. We consider three ambition levels with regard to a sustainable production rate for copper and nickel: 1000 years, 500 years and 200 years of guaranteed, sufficient and affordable supply to the entire world population at a service level, which, in all countries, is equal to the service level in developed countries in 2020. The conclusion is that the highest sustainability ambition (1000 years) is only achievable with a combination of an optimistically large amount of available resources in combination with a high end-of-life recycling rate. Whether the required amount of resources will be available for an affordable price, remains uncertain.