Assessment of climate change impacts on groundwater exploitation sustainability in the Emilia-Romagna region (Italy)

Abstract

The Emilia-Romagna region, one of the most agriculturally productive regions in Italy, heavily relies on groundwater for irrigation. Climate change, with increasingly frequent and severe droughts, is expected to increase dependency on groundwater resources. To assess climate change impacts on the regional aquifer system, a high-resolution numerical groundwater flow model of a portion of Emilia-Romagna is implemented in MODFLOW 6, building on the data and previous model developed by the Regional Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of Emilia-Romagna (Arpae). The model simulates long-term scenarios, considering reductions of precipitation and increased groundwater abstraction over 12 years. Results indicate that the aquifer system is vulnerable to droughts, with intensified effects when groundwater pumping increases. Furthermore, areas where the impacts of reduced precipitation and higher abstraction are particularly pronounced are identified. These findings provide critical insights for the implementation of sustainable management strategies for the regional aquifer system during long-term droughts.