Current and future global water scarcity intensifies when accounting for surface water quality

Abstract

The inadequate availability of clean water presents systemic risks to human health, food production, energy generation and ecosystem functioning. Here we evaluate population exposure to current and future water scarcity (both excluding and including water quality) using a coupled global hydrological and surface water quality model. We find that 55% of the global population are currently exposed to clean water scarcity at least one month per year, compared with 47% considering water quantity aspects only. Exposure to clean water scarcity at least one month per year increases to 56–66% by the end of the century. Increases in future exposure are typically largest in developing countries—particularly in sub-Saharan Africa—driven by a combination of water quantity and quality aspects. Strong reductions in both anthropogenic water use and pollution are therefore necessary to minimize the impact of future clean water scarcity on humans and the environment.