Unsustainable global freshwater consumption driven by economic growth

Abstract

Freshwater, a vital resource for ecosystems and societies, faces increasing threats from anthropic uses and climate change, exacerbating water stress for two-thirds of the global population. The paper examines whether economic growth can alleviate or contribute to the impending water crisis. We examine the interplay between per capita GDP and water demand for food production and consumption across 121 countries over 24 years. Using the CWASI database, a unique global longitudinal dataset on water footprint, our analysis reveals a consistently monotonic increase in the water footprint of consumption at the global scale, as economies grow. The rising pressure is mainly driven by the increasing volume of water embedded in food consumed within each country, even as the water footprint of local food production tends to decline slightly once countries reach a sufficiently high level of per capita income. Our findings suggest that the anticipated improvements in water use efficiency associated with technological and institutional development appear insufficient to counter the global rise in freshwater demand. Instead, the slightly virtuous evolution in the water footprint of production observed in wealthier countries is largely sustained through virtual water imports from less developed regions. Notably, the turning point in water footprint of production for richer countries occurs at per capita levels exceeding the renewable freshwater endowment available in many parts of the world. These findings build on and extend previous evidence of spatial displacement of water use, raising critical concerns about the sustainability of future global water supply, development trajectories, and food security.