Analysis of the silicon market: Will thin films profit?

Abstract

The photovoltaic industry has been growing with astonishing rates over the past years. The supply of silicon to the wafer-based industry has recently become a problem. This paper presents a thorough analysis of the PV industry and quantifies the silicon shortage. It is expected that this leads to a decrease in production in 2006 rather than the usual increase. Due to a mismatch in expansion plans of silicon feedstock manufacturers and solar cell manufacturers, a large cell overcapacity will persist up to 2010. The thin-film PV market is expected to profit from the silicon shortage problem; its market share may substantially increase to about 25% in 2010.