Who Predicts?: Dutch Storm Warnings Between Scientific Authority and User Expertise, 1860-1920

Abstract

This paper shows that expert authority can be the result of a process of co-construction by scientists and users, using the case of the Netherlands’ storm warnings system. I analyze the changing “culture of prediction” of the Netherlands’ storm warnings system between 1860 and about 1920, focusing on the changing relation between scientific experts and users with experience-based expertise. When started, the storm warnings relied on users taking an active role. The new storm warning system, introduced by Buys Ballot in 1860 following the introduction of telegraph networks, explicitly tried to mobilize sailors’ weather wisdom. Following complaints from the maritime community and controversies about criteria for accuracy or reliability around 1900, storm forecasting authority became the exclusive domain of scientists. Interestingly, the authority of experts was not challenged during this controversy. Rather, the debates focused on mutual expectations of expertise and on whether the storm warning system was primarily a scientific or a practical system. This paper is based on historical documentation from the archives of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, which includes the perspectives of users.