Municipality manufacturing agglomerations unveiled: Exploring spatial structural transformation in Mexico under import substitution and trade liberalisation

Abstract

This paper conducts a comprehensive long-run analysis of the global spatial concentration and locational dynamics of manufacturing agglomerations in Mexico. While prior research on Mexico has examined the impact of trade liberalisation on processes of regional convergence or divergence, effects on the scale, location and dynamics of agglomerations and local specialisation remain underexplored. To address this gap in the literature, we use a newly-collated municipality-level dataset containing more granular data distinct from more frequently used state-level data. Our analysis spans the period 1950–2019, capturing the full extent of the growing importance of the manufacturing sector and providing a nuanced perspective on the evolution of agglomerations and local specialisation patterns. We investigate shifts in agglomeration during import substitution and following the introduction of trade liberalisation, examining whether new agglomerations emerged or existing ones attracted further economic activity and how these changes impacted local specialisation. In extension, we also examine recent trends, assessing the persistence or alteration of agglomeration dominance in the north of the country. In doing so, our analysis provides valuable insights into the intricate dynamics of agglomerations and local specialisation and their significance in shaping regional disparities.