Weight of evidence evaluation of the metabolism disrupting effects of triphenyl phosphate using an expert knowledge elicitation approach

Abstract

Identification of Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals (EDCs) in a regulatory context requires a high level of evidence. However, lines of evidence (e.g. human, in vivo, in vitro or in silico) are heterogeneous and incomplete for quantifying evidence of the adverse effects and mechanisms involved. To date, for the regulatory appraisal of metabolism-disrupting chemicals (MDCs), no harmonised guidance to assess the weight of evidence has been developed at the EU or international level. To explore how to develop this, we applied a formal Expert Knowledge Elicitation (EKE) approach within the European GOLIATH project. EKE captures expert judgment in a quantitative manner and provides an estimate of uncertainty of the final opinion. As a proof of principle, we selected one suspected MDC -triphenyl phosphate (TPP) - based on its related adverse endpoints (obesity/adipogenicity) relevant to metabolic disruption and a putative Molecular Initiating Event (MIE): activation of peroxisome proliferator activated receptor gamma (PPARγ). We conducted a systematic literature review and assessed the quality of the lines of evidence with two independent groups of experts within GOLIATH, with the objective of categorising the metabolic disruption properties of TPP, by applying an EKE approach. Having followed the entire process separately, both groups arrived at the same conclusion, designating TPP as a “suspected MDC” with an overall quantitative agreement exceeding 85%, indicating robust reproducibility. The EKE method provides to be an important way to bring together scientists with diverse expertise and is recommended for future work in this area.