Closing the 2020 emissions gap: issues, options and strategies

Abstract

Without further and accelerated action it appears very likely that global greenhouse gas emission levels in 2020 will be far above those that are consistent with agreed international warming goals. This gap between where emissions are headed and where they need to be is now widely acknowledged by the international community and at COP17 in Durban a work plan on enhancing mitigation ambition was launched to explore options for strengthening efforts by all Parties. In this context, this briefing paper explores a range of issues, options and strategies for bridging the 2020 emissions gap as a matter of urgency. We begin by reviewing some of the recent science in relation to limiting warming to the agreed warming goals, and the relative role of different greenhouse gases and other climate forcing agents. The scientific analysis in this paper is new in that it integrates insights from the recent reports published by the United Nations Environment Programme, relating to hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions, action on methane and action to reduce air pollution in the context of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to levels consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, and ultimately to 1.5°C . Another innovative feature of this briefing paper then follows with a practical analysis of a range of initiatives that, taken together, could have the potential to bring emissions from present projected levels to those that are consistent with 2°C warming limit and assist national governments to implement and strengthen their emission reduction pledges. We provide an overview of such initiatives -often led by players other than national governments and in many cases driven by concerns broader than climate change. Together, these initiatives could have the potential to bridge the emissions gap. Finally we highlight further work needed to elaborate on the scientific issues, mitigation options and barriers to their achievement in order to realise the possibilities outlined in the paper.