Chapter 11 - Heating and cooling in the built environment

Abstract

In this chapter the market development and the techno-economic learning are investigated for two competing technologies to assess their relative dynamics in terms of techno-economic performance: heat pump (HP) as an exemplary technology to tap renewable energy sources and (condensing) gas boilers as the reference system. Long-term historical data series are particularly important when using the experience curve method. Motivated by the data availability of such data The Netherlands and Switzerland are chosen to perform two case studies for which further original and secondary data was collected. Specific methodological issues related to experience curves of end use technologies are discussed. Although the empirical basis is by far not complete, it can be affirmed that learning rates (LR) from previously studies reconfirmed by recently gathered data. The learning rate of the main cost components of HP is 12%-22% and that of the system as a whole about 20% while their utility in terms of less noise emission, system integration, and energy-efficiency improved. This is equal or higher as compared to the LR of condensing gas boiler (13%). This holds for both countries assessed, although it should be kept in mind that the time series is quite short in the Dutch case. Moreover, a LR for the coefficient of performance was found which is 5% in the case of ground source HP and 9% for air-to-water HP. Thus HP offer a high potential to improve their cost-effectiveness relative to reference systems in terms of cost of delivered heating energy which depend on both specific investment costs and on the energy efficiency.