Foresight: Multilevel Climate Policy in 2030

Abstract

What effects would it have on German, EU and international climate policy if Trump is re-elected and leaves the Paris Agreement? If the US/China tensions escalate? Or if the European Green Deal were not continued? Climate policy is a multifaceted field characterized by the intricate interplay between domestic, regional, supranational, and international dynamics. Thinking through the plausible future complexities of climate policy requires a comprehensive approach that considers the interconnections and synergies across these different levels. In order to enable such future thinking, two foresight workshops were carried out as part of an internal process within the SWP’s Research Cluster on Climate Policy and Politics. This working paper details how the foresight process enabled structured thinking about complex plausible (rather than probable or desirable) futures, and provided a framework for a discussion of climate policy recommendations that may be robust in the face of a range of such plausible futures.