The Effect of Models of Fugitive Behavior on Police Interception Strategies

Abstract

One of the tasks of police is catching fleeing suspects, where the police interception positions depend on the fleeing suspect’s route choices. Various conceptualizations of route choice decision-making of fleeing suspects exist. However, we do not know the effects of these different models of fugitive behavior on the calculated police interception strategy. Therefore, we operationalize two models of route choice and implement these in a simulation. Police interception strategies are obtained by optimization. The resulting sets of routes and the calculated police interception positions are subsequently compared and interpreted. The experiments show that the different route-choice models result in different escape routes and, therefore, different calculated police interception positions. The differences are larger when the road network is complex and contains non-uniform obstacles. In other words, the robustness of the calculated police interception positions for each model largely depends on the network topology.