El Nino: processes, dynamics and predictability

Abstract

The El Niño variability in the equatorial Tropical Pacific is characterized by sea-surface temperature anomalies and associated changes in the atmospheric circulation. Through an enormous monitoring effort over the last decades, the relevant time scales and spatial patterns are fairly well-documented. Anna von der Heydt and Henk Dijkstra describe the hierarchy of models that have been developed to understand the physics of this phenomenon and to make predictions of future variability. It turns out that the predictability of El Niño events is still limited to about 6–9 months due to inherent nonlinear processes.