Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points
Publication date
2022-09-09
Authors
Armstrong McKay, David I.
Staal, Arie
Abrams, Jesse F.
Winkelmann, Ricarda
Sakschewski, Boris
Loriani, Sina
Fetzer, Ingo
Cornell, Sarah E.
Rockström, Johan
Lenton, Timothy M.
Editors
Advisors
Supervisors
Document Type
Article
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taverne
Abstract
Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global ?core? tipping elements and regional ?impact? tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to
Keywords
Antarctic ice-sheet, Carbon, Co2, Collapse, Early-warning signals, Elements, Mass-loss, Sea-level, Thresholds, Thwaites, Taverne, General
Citation
Armstrong McKay, D I, Staal, A, Abrams, J F, Winkelmann, R, Sakschewski, B, Loriani, S, Fetzer, I, Cornell, S E, Rockström, J & Lenton, T M 2022, 'Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points', Science, vol. 377, no. 6611, eabn7950, pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950