Solving science conundrums in the climate-nature-equity polycrisis with integrated transformative scenarios

Abstract

Addressing the intertwined climate, biodiversity, and equity crises requires transformative societal change. Yet the scenario frameworks and models used to explore future pathways often reproduce existing institutions, governance systems, and social structures, limiting their ability to imagine more sustainable and just futures. A key gap is the lack of approaches that can identify and evaluate transformative actions while accounting for systemic inequities in implementation. Here, we argue that integrating climate and biodiversity knowledge across the natural sciences, social sciences, and humanities, together with stakeholders and diverse knowledge holders, can support the development of normative scenarios and models for just and sustainable Earth system futures. We outline a research agenda, highlight emerging examples of this shift, and identify the coalitions and institutional changes needed to advance it. More inclusive scenarios and modeling tools are essential for foregrounding equitable solution pathways and informing decisions about collective futures.