Measurement and Modeling: Infectious Disease Modeling
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Publication date
2016
Authors
Kretzschmar, MEE
Editors
Quah, Stella
Advisors
Supervisors
Document Type
Entry
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taverne
Abstract
After some historical remarks about the development of mathematical theory for infectious disease dynamics we introduce a basic mathematical model for the spread of an infection with immunity. The concepts of the model are explained and the model equations are derived from first principles. Using this simple framework we derive central concepts of infectious disease modelling like the basic reproduction number, the endemic steady state and the critical vaccination coverage. We explain how the basic model can be extended in various directions to accommodate specific modelling questions and needs. Finally, we give some recent examples of the use of infectious disease modelling for public health policy making.
Keywords
Age structure, Basic reproduction number, Compartmental models, Contingency planning, Cost-effectiveness analysis, Critical vaccination coverage, Elimination, Endemic steady state, Extinction of infection, Final epidemic size, Force of infection, Heterogeneity, Minor and major outbreaks, Network models, Population mixing, Scale-free networks, SIR model, Stochastic models, Taverne
Citation
Kretzschmar, MEE 2016, Measurement and Modeling: Infectious Disease Modeling. in S Quah (ed.), Reference Module in Biomedical Sciences : Epidemiology and Public Health. Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-801238-3.98837-8