A model of lineage-1 and lineage-2 rinderpest virus transmission in pastoral areas of East Africa
Publication date
2005
Authors
Mariner, J.C.
McDermott, J.
Heesterbeek, Hans
Catley, A.
Roeder, P.
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Supervisors
Document Type
Article
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Abstract
The development of a stochastic, state-transition model of rinderpest transmission dynamics is described using parameter estimates obtained from both laboratory and participatory research. Using serological data, the basic reproduction numbers for lineage-1 rinderpest virus in southern Sudan and for lineage-2 rinderpest virus in Somali livestock were estimated as 4.4 and between 1.2 and 1.9, respectively. The model predictions for the inter-epidemic period in Sudan and Somalia (1.2 and 4.2 years, respectively) were in agreement with analysis of livestock-owner reports (1–2 years and 5 years, respectively).
Keywords
Diergeneeskunde (DGNK), Taverne
Citation
Mariner, J C, McDermott, J, Heesterbeek, J A P, Catley, A & Roeder, P 2005, 'A model of lineage-1 and lineage-2 rinderpest virus transmission in pastoral areas of East Africa', Preventive Veterinary Medicine, vol. 69, no. 3-4, pp. 245-263. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2005.02.001